Property market forecasts are treated with varying degrees of scepticism, and not without reason. The history of five-year predictions in residential property includes some significant misses in both directions. But the body of medium-term forecasting available as of mid-2026, drawing on the Office for Budget Responsibility, Zoopla, and Rightmove, points to a sufficiently consistent picture to be worth understanding clearly, particularly for anyone making a buying or selling decision with a horizon longer than twelve months.
What the OBR is projecting
The Office for Budget Responsibility, whose forecasts are published alongside Budget statements and represent the government's independent fiscal assessment, projects that the average UK house price will rise from approximately £260,000 in 2024 to just under £305,000 by 2030. That is a cumulative increase of approximately 17% over six years, or an average annual rate of around 2.5% from 2026 onwards, which the OBR describes as broadly in line with average nominal earnings growth over the same period.
The average UK house price according to the ONS and Land Registry currently stands at £268,132 as of March 2026. The gap between that figure and the OBR's 2030 projection represents a gain of approximately £37,000 on the average property if the forecast proves broadly accurate.
What the near-term picture looks like
The pathway to that 2030 figure is not expected to be uniform. Zoopla projects UK house price growth of 1.5% in 2026, reflecting the dampening effect of elevated mortgage rates following the Iran conflict, with the average two-year fixed rate currently sitting at approximately 5.74%. Zoopla then forecasts an annual average of 2.1% between 2027 and 2029 as borrowing conditions gradually ease and structural demand reasserts itself. Rightmove projects 2% growth for 2026 overall, consistent with the Zoopla view of a measured rather than dramatic near-term recovery.
The broad consensus across forecasters is that 2026 represents the softer end of the medium-term growth trajectory, with more meaningful momentum expected from 2027 onwards as the Bank of England resumes its rate-cutting cycle and affordability improves.
What the structural factors underpin
The five-year growth forecast is not built on optimism alone. It rests on structural conditions that have been consistent features of the UK housing market for decades. New housing completions continue to fall below the government's target of 1.5 million homes over the current parliament. Household formation rates, driven by population growth and changing living patterns, generate consistent underlying demand. Wages are expected to continue growing faster than house prices through the forecast period, gradually improving the affordability ratio that has been a constraint on transaction volumes.
The Iran conflict has introduced a layer of uncertainty into the near-term picture that was not present in forecasts published at the start of the year. Higher mortgage rates have moderated buyer activity in 2026 more than most forecasters anticipated in January. But the medium-term structural picture has not materially changed as a result of external shocks that most analysts characterise as cyclical rather than permanent.
What this means in practice
A property purchased at today's average price of approximately £268,000 could be worth £305,000 or above by 2030, if the OBR's central projection holds. That trajectory is not linear, and individual property outcomes will vary considerably by location, type, and condition. What the forecast provides is a reasonable basis for making decisions with a medium-term horizon rather than anchoring entirely to the short-term conditions of mid-2026.
Talk to our team about your property decision today
